Grant a planner every fact in the world and a machine that never errs. He still cannot choose between steel and aluminium, because the number that choice needs is made by a contest he has abolished.
The speculator is the market's most useful villain. He produces nothing you can hold and profits when others panic, which makes him the natural suspect whenever a market breaks. But the risk he is blamed for existed before he arrived, and most of what gets pinned on speculation turns out to be the work of whoever distorted the price he was only reading.
In four weeks the market repriced the Federal Reserve's policy path four times, on a hot CPI, a hawkish projection, an energy-driven PCE print, and a payroll miss. News about the economy moves any expected path. The rest of the movement priced something else: how a committee bound by no rule would choose to read that news. Data dependence is the honest name for discretion, and the honesty does not lower its price.
Current Work
Ongoing commitments spanning academic research, institutional coordination, and applied analysis.
Research in progress across monetary policy, institutional economics, and financial markets, combining formal coursework at WU Vienna with independent inquiry and applied econometric work.
Research · AnalysisBuilding and coordinating the Students For Liberty Austria national network: organising events in partnership with classical liberal think tanks, and hosting international speakers from the Cato Institute, George Mason University, and the Austrian Economic Center.
Leadership · CoordinationWriting for academic and policy audiences — research notes, essays, and commentary on how economic arrangements shape real-world outcomes, from central bank decisions to market structure.
Policy · OutreachContact
Looking for research internships and analyst roles at policy institutes, central banks, and research organisations. The fastest way to reach me is email — I read everything and usually reply within a day or two. Always happy to talk about academic collaboration or independent projects.