In four weeks the market repriced the Federal Reserve's policy path four times, on a hot CPI, a hawkish projection, an energy-driven PCE print, and a payroll miss. News about the economy moves any expected path. The rest of the movement priced something else: how a committee bound by no rule would choose to read that news. Data dependence is the honest name for discretion, and the honesty does not lower its price.
Codebase
Calibrated to the Headline
The Cost of a Reaction Function No One Can Write Down