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The ECB's June Decision and the Stagflation Problem It Cannot Solve

June 2026 · Macro Note

The ECB meets on June 11. Markets are pricing a rate hike at near certainty. The inflation numbers justify it on the surface. The problem is that this inflation does not come from too much spending, and no rate hike can close the Strait of Hormuz.

Monetary Policy Short Term

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The ECB's June Decision and the Stagflation Problem It Cannot Solve

June 2026 · Macro Note

The ECB meets on June 11. Markets are pricing a rate hike at near certainty. The inflation numbers justify it on the surface. The problem is that this inflation does not come from too much spending, and no rate hike can close the Strait of Hormuz.

Monetary Policy Short Term