Research

Scorecard

4 calls · 1 right · 0 wrong · 1 mixed · 2 open

Note	Date	Call	Resolves	Outcome	Evidence
The Deposit Drain That Isn't: MiCA, Stablecoins, and the Lever the ECB Keeps for Itself	Jul 23, 2026	For positioning, the implication runs against the mood: a de-rating of European bank equity priced on stablecoin deposit flight, whether through deposit betas or net interest income, is mispriced and years early. Fading it beats chasing it.	Dec 31, 2026	Open	—
Calibrated to the Headline: The Cost of a Reaction Function No One Can Write Down	Jul 4, 2026	A committee re-litigating the latest release will produce another paragraph of judgment and another repricing. One path marks the beginning of something markets can price in advance; the other is the pattern Figure 1 already records, and every print between now and the framework review's conclusion will extend it.	Jul 29, 2026	Right	Evidence
The BOJ's June Decision and What Japanese Normalization Means for Global Markets	Jun 14, 2026	A duller and more likely base case is a slow tightening of global liquidity as the world's last source of cheap funding is withdrawn, felt as a persistent bid under US yields and a persistent headwind for the most leveraged corners of the market.	Dec 31, 2026	Open	—
The ECB's June Decision and the Stagflation Problem It Cannot Solve	Jun 3, 2026	Still, the ECB will hike anyway. The June 11 decision will very likely be the wrong one. Not catastrophically wrong, but wrong in the precise sense that matters: tightening into a supply shock is the textbook policy error, and the Eurozone will pay for it in foregone growth before the energy shock resolves on its own terms.	Jun 11, 2026	Mixed	Evidence