Research in progress

The questions

The furthest along is a theory paper on Mises's calculation argument, answering the strongest formal challenge to it, the linear-programming duality argument, on its own terms. Next to it sits an empirical paper on Fed and ECB communication, measuring how strongly the language commits to rules rather than discretion and whether markets price that separately from the usual hawk-dove reading. And there is a paper on Vienna's social-housing model, measuring the costs that stay invisible next to the celebrated low rents. Smaller notes come and go around them.

Status: the Mises paper is furthest along, the empirical threads are in the data stage.

Approach & methods

The empirical work tries to trace aggregate results back to the decisions underneath them where the data allows. The estimation runs in R and the data pipeline in Python, and each project rebuilds from raw input so the result holds up on a second look.

This section grows as the work does. Specification choices and the parts that didn't work get recorded here as they settle.

The through-line

What ties the threads together is institutions, the rules people operate under and how those rules shape what a policy ends up producing. The interesting variation usually sits a step below the headline decision, in how much of the effect survives once real institutions are in the way.

Expected output

Bigger threads are meant to end as a working paper with a reproducible codebase published alongside it under research codebases. Along the way the work shows up as market notes and deep dives in the research archive; the opinion side lives in the writing archive.