Current work · Research
Research in progress
Here I write about the research I'm still working on, before it's ready to publish. Finished work goes in the research archive.
The questions
My theory paper on Mises's calculation argument is furthest along. It answers the strongest formal challenge to that argument, the linear-programming duality argument, on its own terms. I'm also writing an empirical paper on Fed and ECB communication. It measures how strongly their language commits to rules rather than discretion, and whether markets price that separately from the usual hawk-dove reading. Another paper studies Vienna's social-housing model, measuring costs that remain hidden when attention goes to its celebrated low rents. Between these papers, I write smaller notes as questions come up.
The empirical projects are still at the data stage.
Approach & methods
In the empirical work, I try to understand the decisions behind aggregate results where the data allows. I use R for estimation and Python for the data pipeline. Each project rebuilds from raw inputs so the results can be checked again.
As the work develops, I'll add to this section, recording specification choices as they settle and keeping track of what didn't work.
The through-line
In each of these projects, I look at institutions and how the rules people operate under shape the results of a policy. The variation I find interesting is usually a step below the headline decision. I want to know how much of a policy's effect survives once it meets the institutions that exist in practice.
Expected output
I plan to turn the larger projects into working papers, with their reproducible codebases published under research codebases. As the projects develop, I publish market notes and deep dives in the research archive. The opinion pieces go in the writing archive.