Research in progress

The questions

I usually have a few threads going at once, most of them in monetary economics and the institutions policy has to work through, each at a different stage of data collection or modeling. What they share is a method more than a topic.

Status: several threads, mostly data collection & modeling.

Approach & methods

The work is empirical, and it builds up from individuals rather than aggregates. Methodological individualism means an aggregate result only counts once I can account for the choices underneath it. Empirical means the argument starts from the data and is fitted to it, not imposed on it. In practice the estimation runs in R and the data pipeline in Python, and each project rebuilds from raw input so the result holds up on a second look.

This section grows as the work does. Specification choices and the parts that didn't work get recorded here as they settle.

The through-line

What ties the threads together is institutions: the rules people operate under, and how those rules shape what a policy ends up producing. That's where methodological individualism earns its keep. The interesting variation usually sits a step below the headline decision, in how much of the effect survives once real institutions are in the way. That's the part the data can show.

Expected output

Bigger threads are meant to end as a working paper with its reproducible codebase published alongside it under research codebases. Along the way the work shows up as market notes and deepdives in the research archive, which is the analytical side: what the data says, kept separate from the opinion writing.