Every August, USDA prints its first survey-based US corn yield. A band built from its past August misses covered 21 of 22 seasons against a nominal 80%: too wide, and about 4 points of the excess are expected from the estimator itself.
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How far can USDA's August corn yield miss the January final?
Every August, USDA prints its first survey-based US corn yield. A band built from its past August misses covered 21 of 22 seasons against a nominal 80%: too wide, and about 4 points of the excess are expected from the estimator itself.