Research & Analysis
Macroeconomics and market analysis
Longer research pieces and shorter notes, most of them on monetary policy and the institutions it has to work through.
I draw questions from Austrian, institutional, and public-choice economics. I test claims using standard econometrics in R with public data, ensuring reproducible results. Each call consists of a statement, market pricing context, and failure condition, graded at resolution. I maintain a transparent revision process with dated edits and retain adverse results for accountability.
Showing 1–4 of 4
Research archive
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01
The Deposit Drain That Isn't: MiCA, Stablecoins, and the Lever the ECB Keeps for Itself
The ECB warns that stablecoins will drain Europe's bank deposits. The entire euro-stablecoin float is 0.007% of the deposit base, and MiCA has already made it deposit-neutral by design. The instrument that could actually move a trillion euros is the ECB's own digital euro, and the ECB sets its dial.
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02
Calibrated to the Headline: The Cost of a Reaction Function No One Can Write Down
In four weeks the market repriced the Federal Reserve's policy path four times, on a hot CPI, a hawkish projection, an energy-driven PCE print, and a payroll miss. News about the economy moves any expected path. The rest of the movement priced something else: how a committee bound by no rule would choose to read that news. Data dependence is the honest name for discretion, and the honesty does not lower its price.
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03
The BOJ's June Decision and What Japanese Normalization Means for Global Markets
The Bank of Japan is the last major central bank still exiting rate suppression. Its expected June move to 1.0%, the highest since 1995, matters less for Tokyo than for everyone who borrowed cheap yen.
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04
The ECB's June Decision and the Stagflation Problem It Cannot Solve
The ECB meets on June 11. Markets are pricing a rate hike at near certainty. The inflation numbers justify it on the surface. The problem is that this inflation does not come from too much spending, and no rate hike can close the Strait of Hormuz.
